Macho Talk Is Good For Elections

President Mahinda Rajapakse has done some tough talking in New Delhi. He has told Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that the war against terrorism will be prosecuted as planned and that there will be no let up. Going further the President has said that the Sri Lanka government was ready to talk peace with the LTTE any time if the latter laid down arms, thus rejecting LTTE's call for a ceasefire.

Stressing the point that his primary duty was to eradicate terrorism and create a country where all communities could live in peace, the President has said that the government was fully committed to fulfil the humanitarian needs of the Tamil people living in the north and east, and as the Head of State it was his responsibility to take all measures for their safety, welfare and security.

Rajapakse has also said once terrorism is eradicated he will put in place a political solution to the problems faced by the Tamils. This statement he made after meeting Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday and in the teeth of a resolution by the Tamil Nadu State Assembly calling upon New Delhi to ensure a ceasefire in Sri Lanka. In effect the President was telling India to go get stuffed together with Karunanidhi and his resolution.

All that had been said before by President Rajapakse. What is news is that he had said so directly to the Indian Prime Minister. Last month the Indian Premier voiced concern about the security and welfare of the Tamils in the Wanni caught up in military operations of the Sri Lanka government forces against the LTTE following representations made to him by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi. He did so again on Thursday according to Indian media. Apparently it is being projected that both the Indian Prime Minister as well as Tamil Nadu leaders such as Karunanidhi had been satisfied with assurances given by President Rajapakse's Special Envoy Basil Rajapakse who was sent to New Delhi last month.

However, there is still much agitation in Tamil Nadu over the fate of Tamils caught up in the war and probably about the LTTE as well because on November 12 the Tamil Nadu State Assembly adopted a resolution calling for a ceasefire between the Sri Lankan forces and the LTTE. But President Rajapakse in a show of confidence has told the Indians to go choke on a chapatti going by a statement issued through the President's media office.

Thus it is doubtful whether the assurances given by Basil Rajapakse and now the tough talk of President Rajapakse will help allay the agitators in Tamil Nadu. On the contrary, the situation is bound to escalate with Karunanidhi having to fight for his own political credibility. This has to be viewed in the context of the impending parliamentary elections in India which is likely to take place in the first half of next year. The ruling Congress Party is by no means sure of winning an outright majority to form a government and would need the support of Tamil Nadu MPs to form a coalition government. Therefore it could be presumed that the Tamil Nadu issue cannot be considered closed unless of course Sri Lankan forces overrun the areas under LTTE control very soon and eliminate the LTTE cadres. Yet the demand made by New Delhi for a political solution for the grievances of the Tamils will remain.

Rajapakse and his brothers who constitute the ruling clique might be feeling quite macho about the 'fight to a finish' declaration by the Sri Lankan President in New Delhi. It will go down well in the Sinhalese electorates who have been fed with regular doses of imminent victory and thereby fit into the future plans of President Rajapakse. 'War' has been the political rice and curry of Mahinda Rajapakse since he took office as President and is the only achievement the government boasts of to the electorate weighed down by an escalating cost of living.

With three years in office, despite the bombast in his budget speech, he has nothing substantial to show in the form of economic benefits that his government has brought about. Inflation is still the highest in the South Asian region vacillating between 25 to 30 per cent. Now there is apparently a shortage of foreign exchange which has compelled him to cut down drastically on imports of consumer items under the euphemism of 'import substitution' to boost local production. The people are entitled to know about this sudden desire for import substitution when for three years no one seemed to be concerned about this patriotic longing.

The Rajapakses apparently are seeing dark clouds gathering over the horizon because they also saw the need to threaten the radio and TV channels with dire consequences through Gazette regulations if they don't play ball with the government. That at least came a cropper in the Supreme Court on Friday with the draconian Gazette suspended with immediate effect.

Lacking a clear parliamentary majority of his liking, President Rajapakse may be planning to go to the polls soon - while the victory march of the armed services are on. It happened quite recently with provincial council elections being held in the North Central Province and Sabaragamuwa Province. The war cry at the elections would be: 'Vote the government party to power if you want to win the war.' It happened in the two provincial council elections and it will happen again. The conventional political wisdom is that it will be a repeat performance.

Mahinda Rajapakse is apparently a believer  in the declaration of German military strategist Karl Von Clausewitz that 'war is a continuation of politics by other means.' He should also ponder on the wisdom of Mao Tse Tung: 'Politics  is war without bloodshed and war is politics with bloodshed.' Hundreds of Sri Lankan youth, both Sinhalese and Tamils are perishing in this senseless war each week and going by reports from the war front the blood letting won't stop any time soon.

What Mahinda Rajapakse should consider is: Even if he wins 'the war' and elections, whether the Tamil problem would be resolved. The problem in Sri Lanka will remain and so will our problems with the Indian government which has been demanding that a political solution should be found to resolve the grievances of Tamils.  

Pressurised by India and other foreign nations concerned with the humanitarian aspect of the problem President Rajapakse is now talking  continuously about a 'political solution' to the problem without making a determined move to find one. His attempts to find such a solution through the so called All Party Conference are fast becoming a national joke.

If the intention is to hold an election while the war is raging, the least he could do is to place his solution before the people so that the election could serve as a referendum. Other political parties too could do the same. But Rajapakse, the wily politician born south of the Bentara River, has been fighting shy in making his solution public - even if he has one. The idea of all the parties reaching a consensus at the All Party Conference is sound on paper but is a stillborn as is evident from the progress that has been made so far. The bane of Sri Lankan political parties has been their inability to agree on any conceivable subject except of course on salary hikes and perks for politicians.