MR-Ranil discuss war and peace as LTTE vows to shatter southern dreams

While LTTE Leader Velupillai Pirapaharan made it clear in his annual 'Heroes Day' speech that more bloodshed and mayhem can be expected in Sri Lanka as the war intensifies, President Mahinda Rajapakse was busy last week grappling the nightmare economic scenario confronting the country in the backdrop of the oil hedging disaster even as the opposition moved swiftly to put an alliance together believing an election will come sooner than later.

That the LTTE Leader will fight to the end was made abundantly clear in his speech which was laced with the usual crumbs thrown in of the organisation's willingness for talks, and the government missing the underlying message seized on that as a sign of weakness, once again lulling the public into a false sense of complacency.

Olive branch

Having held out an olive branch to India with references made to the overwhelming support from Tamil Nadu, Pirapaharan also made the point that the Tigers entered negotiations to prove to the world the Sinhala nation was not sincere in addressing the legitimate aspirations of the Tamil people. Such comments may not attract credibility given the enforced boycott at the presidential election of 2005 that paved the way for a hard-line administration, but it draws attention to the fact the LTTE itself is looking at negotiations as a tactical ploy rather than a genuine effort to reach a peaceful settlement.

     And that more bloody battles are in store were captured in the following words of the LTTE Leader: "Our heroes died for this land and are at rest in its bosom. The land where they are embedded belongs to us. It is our own land. But an arrogant Sinhala nation stands adamant and is determined to occupy and conquer this historic land. All human suffering springs from unbridled desire. Unless one extricates oneself from the clutch of greed, one will not free himself from the fetters of sorrow. With its greed for land, Sinhalam has entered a militaristic path of destruction. It has sought to build the support of the world to confront us. It is living in a dreamland of military victory. It is a dream from which it will awake. That is certain."

With those words, Pirapaharan has indicated he will not lay down arms or agree to a conditional ceasefire, but will battle on,  assuring the Tamil people in the process the government's military campaign will be defeated, and whether those words are rhetorical or not, it drives home the point, the war will rage on for months to come with the resultant economic consequences.

  What is significant however is the support the LTTE Leader is looking for from Tamil Nadu, going so far as to state, "The dormant voices in support of our struggle are re-emerging aloud again.  There are also indications of our struggle  becoming accepted there. The positive change in environment gives us courage to seek renewal of our relationship with the Indian superpower..."

Of course the President can take the bottom off Pirapaharan's hopes of  greater Indian support by putting forward a viable political package and  isolating the Tiger supremo but Rajapakse's  hard-line agenda leading upto an election precludes him from doing so, thereby giving the LTTE the opportunity of appealing to Tamil Nadu.

Pressure

Thus, for President Rajapakse, it was not just the economic nightmare that was giving him sleepless nights but also the pressure mounted from Tamil Nadu for a ceasefire which was creating its own ripples further to the stiff resistance mounted by the LTTE in the Wanni.

Indeed the government was hoping to capture Kilinochchi and make a show of it before Pirapaharan's speech on Thursday, November 27, going so far as to make arrangements to fly the media for the grand show followed by a Presidential address but it was not to be in the face of stiff Tiger resistance.

Later as a face-saving measure, Environment Minister Champika Ranawaka was to tell Resettlement Minister Reshad Bathiudeen from the Wanni it was best to wait for the dissolution of parliament to announce the liberation of Kilinochchi.

That to the President only underscored the enormity of the task ahead in the backdrop of mounting Indian pressure for a political package including force-feeding parippu through the ICRC, an overall challenge not made any easier with a plummeting economy threatening to take its toll on the administration.

Storms

It is to ride these political, military and economic storms by marketing the war, that the President looked at a snap general election but even that decision is now being swayed by astrologers who are advising it will be disastrous to do so before September 2009 and urging Rajapakse to go for provincial polls instead.

That of course is in addition to the internal conflicts in the government over the timing of the election with Basil Rajapakse and Dulles Alahapperuma on the one hand and Ministers Maithripala Sirisena and Susil Premajayanth on the other pulling in different directions (See Potshots on page 4).

To make matters worse, the President was to receive intelligence reports indicating there maybe high profile Tiger attacks in the city in the days ahead, which could well open another front for the government to deal with at a time the Eastern Province is already on the boil.

It is in this backdrop, news from Tamil Nadu reached the President of Chief Minister Muttuvel Karunanidhi convening an all party meeting for Tuesday, November 25 to consider the Sri Lankan situation further to Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe being given a tough time in the state and he decided to find out first hand what the ground situation was in India.

Discussion

Thus, on the morning of Sunday, November 23, President Rajapakse was to telephone Opposition Leader Wickremesinghe for a discussion on the developments in New Delhi in general and Tamil Nadu in particular with emphasis on the security situation.

At the outset, the President was to ask Wickremesinghe about the protest he ran into in Tamil Nadu, whether there were any security threats involved and as to who was behind the campaign and the UNP Leader explained at length what had transpired.

The UNP Leader told the President after the initial flurry the security brought the situation under control and that there was no real danger. Wickremesinghe said the temple he visited was in an area where the Communist Party of India was strong and that they had organised the protest.

Asked the President: "What were they shouting?"

Replied the UNP Leader: "They were shouting slogans to stop the killing of Tamil civilians and for Rajapakse to go home." The President chuckled by way of a response.

Wickremesinghe went on to explain to the President that the protest campaign in Tamil Nadu appears to be spreading with even Karunanidhi not in a position to control it anymore following film stars also joining the campaign.

Having listened to what transpired, the President inquired from Wickremesinghe whom he met with in India and what their thinking was and once again the UNP Leader gave a full briefing including the talks with Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and the BJP duo, Yashwant Singh and Jaswant Singh.

Dialogue

On being probed for specifics, Wickremesinghe told the President their thinking was that he should open a dialogue with the Tamil National Alliance and arrive at a political solution though there was no push for a ceasefire in New Delhi as opposed to Tamil Nadu.

Responded Rajapakse: "But I invited the TNA for talks. They did not accept my invitation but let's see again."

Having said that the President asked whether there were any specific concerns on the part of New Delhi which  were communicated, and the UNP Leader replied in the affirmative. Wickremesinghe said Mukherjee in particular was keen to ensure protection for the refugees and stressed the importance of creating humanitarian space.

Replied the President: "That is no problem. Now we have a no-war zone for refugees."

Not feasible

With that out of the way, Wickremesinghe briefed the President on the call for a ceasefire in Tamil Nadu and said such thinking was not reflected in New Delhi with the BJP in particular of the view a ceasefire would not be feasible at this point, more so until one side established its superiority on the ground.

"I too do not think a ceasefire is practical at this time," Wickremesinghe added.

Responded Rajapakse: "What ceasefire now. We must now surround and hammer them and finish it off."

 However Wickremesinghe was to point out that the Communist Party of India which was strong in several areas in the outskirts of Tamil Nadu was pushing hard for a ceasefire and creating ripples in the state.

Thereafter, the President discussed the overall security situation and asked Wickremesinghe to take extra precautions and curtail his movements in the coming weeks given the reports received of LTTE activity.

"Is your security OK? Is there anything that needs to be done?" the President inquired and the UNP Leader replied stating his security was under control with necessary precautions taken to tighten all gaps.

And while the President and the Opposition Leader were discussing the futility of a ceasefire at this time, the JHU was of a different mindset and discussed the issue with Indian High Commissioner Alok Prasad last week and was amenable to the idea subject to guarantees given by New Delhi.

Indeed a high-powered delegation of the JHU including Ven. Ellawela Medhananda Thero and Udaya Gammanpila attended the discussion after which a statement was made though spokesman Nishantha Sri Warnasinghe to the Lanka Dissent website, wherein he indicated the party as willing to consider supporting a ceasefire provided it came with an Indian guarantee.

Intense pressure

"The Central Government is under intense pressure today over the war in northern Sri Lanka. India will have a general election early next year. To gain political mileage various parties have included Sri Lanka in their agendas," Warnasinghe was quoted as stating.

"The JHU Spokesman noted that previously only pro-Tiger TN parties had pressurised New Delhi, while now the CPI has entered and changed the situation qualitatively," it was also reported. And then Warnasinghe adds, "We should accept that reality. The pressure on the Indian Centre has increased."

Within 24 hours of this statement being made public, the UNP went to town and challenged the JHU in parliament prompting Minister Ranawaka to concede a party delegation did meet the Indian High Commissioner but insisting there can be no ceasefire until such time the LTTE lays down arms.

Of course in its original statement issued to Lanka Dissent, which was read over to Wanasinghe and approved by him, there was no mention of the LTTE laying down arms but under pressure from the UNP Ranawaka was to state the JHU insists on the LTTE surrendering their weapons, but by this time the danger was done.

Intervene

It was while this debate was going on in parliament that Karunanidhi was having his meeting in Chennai where an agreement was reached to travel to New Delhi on December 4 and push the Central Government to intervene in the Sri Lanka conflict and ensure a ceasefire.

How that eventually plays out, given the developments in Mumbai remains to be seen but there were many others who wanted to jump the bandwagon on this issue with offers to even carry messages between the President, LTTE and the UNP Leader.

Towards this end a delegation from the Congress of Religions including amongst others William Vendley, Ven. Tep Wong from Cambodia, Ven Sobitha Thero, Jehan Perera and Kingsley Rodrigo met with the UNP Leader on Monday, November 24 but found little support with Wickremesinghe stating that if he needed to convey a message to Rajapakse he would do so directly.

"Even yesterday the two of us spoke," Wickremesinghe said.

Support

The delegation was basically seeking the support of the President and the UNP Leader to establish a human corridor and safety zone for the people trapped in the Wanni in addition to getting the authority to deal with the LTTE.

Wickremesinghe however dismissed the initiative as impractical and said NGOs should not engage in such practices but added if they wanted to help, they could support the Indian initiative of setting up humanitarian space for the refugees.

The following day, Tuesday, November 25, this delegation was to meet President Rajapakse, who once again deflected the offer to deal with the LTTE stating he will speak to "the others" and revert.

But more importantly, the President made his position clear, that there will be no dealing with the LTTE until such time the organisation lays down weapons.

Terrorist problem

Said the President: "This is a terrorist problem. For any negotiations, they must lay down weapons. For the last 25 years various governments have tried to negotiate and failed. I too tried and sent delegations three times to Europe. They used  the ceasefire to strengthen themselves. Therefore, until they are defeated or lay down their weapons, there will be no discussions. I will introduce a practical political solution once terrorism is defeated."

What that solution is going to be and the need for any negotiations with the LTTE after they are militarily defeated, the President did not vouchsafe in the delegation and the message not just to the Congress of Religions but also the Indians was loud and clear - no political solution until the LTTE is decimated.

And such a tough stand leading up to a snap election be it general or provincial will be bread and butter for the UPFA and is the cause the President wants to push hard notwithstanding Indian pressure and no doubt will hold the UPFA in good stead provided there are no military setbacks or the economy does not hit ground zero.

That the economic factor in this respect is of serious concern to the President, especially given the credit crunch was reflected at Wednesday's cabinet meeting with lengthy discussions on the oil hedging disaster taking centre stage.

The initial estimates are that the government will lose somewhere in the region of US$400 million due to the hedging deals with the banks and though last week President Rajapakse took the view the responsibility should be pinned on the banks, saner counsel prevailed on Wednesday.

It was Minister G. L. Peiris fresh after his failure on the GSP Plus issue that took a more practical view on dealing with the international community and international banks this time round, advising the government to tread with caution.

Explaining at length the law of contracts and the legality of agreements signed with international banks, Peiris said it would be ill-advised to renege on the contractual agreements since it would lead to serious consequences.

Credit worthiness

The International Trade Minister said while technical and legal issues can be raised with the banks, the credit worthiness of the country must be maintained at all times.

While Minister Susil Premajayanth maintained silence on Wednesday, having the previous week called for the cancellation of the contracts, President Rajapakse who too wanted the responsibility pinned on the banks last week sang from a different hymn sheet on Wednesday.

The President said while various arguments can be put forward on the legality of the contracts, the government must ensure it does not lose the confidence of the international banks.

Striking a somewhat different chord was Minister Ranawaka who saw those responsible for hedging on the government side blundering big time. Ranawaka said there must be an investigation into the mistakes made and those responsible taken to task.

Retorted Minister Fowzie - "Yes but at the same time, if the hedging operation succeeded, no one would have said anything."

Finally, while deferring a cabinet paper by Fowzie on the issue for  next week, the President appointed a committee comprising Ministers Fowzie, Peiris, Sarath Amunugama and Nimal Siripala de Silva to come up with recommendations to overcome the problem including negotiating with the banks. The committee is to also speak with the Central Bank Governor Nivard Cabraal, a key player in the hedging disaster, who has now taken a backseat quite content to allow CPC Chairman Asantha De Mel take sole responsibility much to Fowzie's ire.

Broad alliance

And while the government was grappling with these issues, the UNP, SLFP (M), the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and Mano Ganesan's Western Province People's Front were busy thrashing out details of a broad alliance.

Towards this end, these party's had a series of discussions last week, fine tuning a draft constitution for the new alliance with Ranil Wickremesinghe, Tissa Attanayake, Joseph Michael Perera, John Amaratunge, Rauf Hakeem, and Mano Ganesan, all weighing in with their suggestions.

The draft constitution and the broad principles of the alliance which were put forward by UNP General Secretary Attanayake found agreement with the SLMC, WPPF and the SLMC and went to the lawyers for approval Friday with plans afoot to register a party before December 9.

It is to take this campaign forward that under Defence Watch, both Samaraweera and Attanayake gave a joint press conference on Thursday, with further action to follow under Corruption Watch and Development Watch.

Further, on Wednesday, the Muslim Congress was to also discuss possible seat allocations in the event of a general election and it appears all systems are go for the new alliance.

At the same time negotiations are underway with several UNP defectors to return to the fold with the UNP Leader expected to make an important announcement at the party convention on Saturday, December 6.

Trek back

In this respect, the key for the UNP is to attract former Deputy Leader Karu Jayasuriya back to the fold but whether he is ready to make the trek back remains to be seen.

Whatever Jayasuriya decides, he is becoming increasingly uncomfortable within the government having repeatedly told the President in private the credibility of the government is at stake and with it his, over the failure to appoint the Constitutional Council.

It is Jayasuriya who fathered the 17th Amendment to the Constitution and the failure on the part of the government to implement the 17th Amendment, the Public Administration Minister has said makes his position and that of the UNP defectors untenable.

Many fronts

Further, the President has also needled Jayasuriya on many fronts including appointing Basil Rajapakse to head the development drive in the Gampaha District and just last week blocked the Public Administration Minister's recommendation for the appointment of the Gampaha government agent based on merit.

Instead, the President insisted on a compromise choice, not giving the Minister so much as an opportunity to pick a government agent based on merit and ironically many of his fellow defectors  enjoying the perks of office had not risen to their leader's defence.

How much further Jayasuriya who is pushing for a meritocracy and good governance in the administration  can  stomach the status quo remains to be seen but for sure there will be interesting political, economic and military developments in the weeks to come.