The impact of the economic recession in the
West has resulted in Far East Asian
countries being severely hit by this
economic plague and India to a lesser
extent. The Western media has during the
past few months been reporting of a large
number of Chinese industries closing up
resulting in the unemployment of millions of
Chinese workers.
The tens of millions of Chinese workers who
are migrants from the countryside to
industrial centres when they go home to
their villages for the Chinese New Year will
not have their jobs when thy come back, it
has been reported. This is a country which
recorded 13 percent GDP in 2007.
The main reason for the collapse of the East
Asian economies is the fall of exports to
Western markets -America
and Europe. Chinese exports went down by 2.8
percent in December when compared to the
previous year.
According to The Economist Japan's GDP had
fallen by 10 percent, Singapore's by 17
percent and South Korea by 21 per cent.
Models of development
These East Asian countries were held up as
models of economic development for the past
three decades. Their economic strength lay
in industrial exports to the West, cheap
labour being their advantage. They were able
to manufacture goods at comparatively
cheaper prices than American and European
industries and Western governments permitted
the inflow of goods despite protests made by
labour unions of the West.
Free trade and globalisation became
watchwords of Western governments and their
economies boomed along with the East Asian
Tigers
Even though some of these countries now have
sturdy economies and their citizens have the
financial capacities to purchase goods at
prices that were sold in the West, intra
trade between the East Asian economies does
not seem to have worked, some economists
claiming that they were linked with trade
relations to the West.
Rethinking
The thinking among some Asians seems to be
that they were lured into globalisation by
the prospects it held and led into opening
up their economies and going for export-led
growth to meet Western consumer demand. Now
with the crash of Western markets these
countries are stranded well and truly.
The argument forwarded by some economists is
that the crash of East Asian economies is
not necessarily because of the crash of
export markets of the West but for weak
domestic demand. China with a population of
a billion people has a tremendous market for
Chinese manufactured goods but China has
failed to capitalise on this advantage.
Western economists blame policies of
government for the week domestic demand.
The Economist says: 'after a decade ago,
many countries fixed their broken financial
systems but left their economies skewed
towards exports. Savings remained high and
domestic consumption was suppressed, partly
out of the balance of payment pressures
faced then, countries have run large trade
surpluses and had built up huge foreign
exchange reserves.'
On their own
Asian economies have now to fend for
themselves because the West now in its
agonies cannot come to their rescue even if
they wished to. During the last Asian
Economic crisis Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamed spurned assistance from
international monetary lending institutions
and pulled his country out of the doldrums
without foreign assistance.
Japan has done it before using its own
resources while China with the second
largest economy will undoubtedly adopting
its own strategies.
The question which most Third World
countries that have taken up to the panacea
of export led development of their economies
will be thinking about is the need to change
their current economic strategies.
Export or perish has been the slogan for the
countries for many decades but there could
be a time such as this when export markets
collapse and economies however small may
have to sustain themselves. A mind boggling
exercise no doubt but a grim reality.