World Affairs

Can Mayawathi be Indian prime minister?

Parliamentary elections in the world's biggest democracy commenced last Thursday with 10 killings despite efforts being made by the Indian Elections Commission to ensure the 668 million registered voters would have a free and fair opportunity to choose their representatives.

The spoilers were India's terrorists, mainly Naxals who triggered a landmine striking a bus carrying border security personnel. In Bihar, a home guard and a policeman were also victims of Naxals while Maoists were reported to have set on fire three polling stations in Orissa.

More such incidents of violence were expected to continue till the end of the poll on May 18 but these are considered mere aberrations in the India electoral process considering the vastness of the electorate that spans a sub continent.

No soothsayers 

A strange feature of this election now on, that would strike a non Indian is that there are no predictions being made in this land famed for its predictions. Even foreigners swear by Indian astrologers whom they say have told them of their past very accurately by reading palms or Ola leaf manuscripts and predicted the future.

But no one is saying with certainty who would be the country's next prime minister. Opinion polls give a slight edge to the Congress led coalition led by Sonia Gandhi but political observers point out that opinion polls in India have at times been quite off the mark.

No leader?

Another striking feature has been that this country which had for its first 30 years after independence the monolithic party the Indian Congress led by Indian freedom fighters, now has no party that could win an election outright and even command a simple majority in parliament.

There is no leader who can command the respect of all Indians such as Jawaharlal Nehru did from the time of independence till his death. Only vestiges of the Nehru dynasty remain in the form of daughter-in-law Sonia Gandhi and grandchildren Rahul and Priyanka - all now trying hard to revive the party of their ancestor.

 New parties and new leaders have emerged since the '70s but most of them have been regional or communal based parties that have had no widespread national appeal other than the Hindu nationalist party the BJP.

A star rises

The only bright star that has appeared on the Indian political horizon whom the poorest of the poor Indians by and large seem to consider their leader is 53 year old Mayawathi, the leader of the Bahujana Samaj Party (BSP) and also the leader of the Dalits - 'untouchables'- spread from the northern borders to the southern states.

Her party is contesting 500 of the 543 seats to the Indian Lok Sabha (Lower House) and some political analysts see her as a candidate for the post of prime minister, even if her party does not win an outright majority but wins a sufficient number of seats to lead a coalition government. 

The Dalits now constitute 250 million - one fifth of the population. Commentators point out that these 'low caste' people have been severely discriminated even in post-independent India. They were and still are refused entry into temples and places of worship. Only a few leaders like the late Dr. Ambedkar had attempted to rehabilitate them but still they remain the most neglected and the poorest of the poor in India.

 Mayawathi, the daughter of a lower middle class railway worker has had no formal education. The leadership of her party came by the way of her alleged lover Kamshi Ram, founder of the BSP. Her party has no ideology. Mayawathi is the party emblem and the primary objective is to promote Dalit rights.

The party manifesto is brief and says: Our country wants growth of capital, not the development of capitalists.' Some elite, educated English speaking Indians have described her as: 'low, venal and uncouth.' 

Uttar Pradesh

The BSP now has a stranglehold over Uttar Pradesh, India's largest state. It was the traditional base of the Nehru dynasty and the Congress won it last in 1984, the year the BSP was formed winning 83 of 85 seats. The last time when Congress formed a coalition government with a meagre 145 seats, it won only nine seats in UP.

At the last election the BSP won 206 of the 403 in UP increasing its share from 23 per cent to 30 per cent. The Gandhis are alarmed at the capture of their home base by this Dalit woman.

 Earlier charismatic grand daughter of Nehru, Priyanka campaigned in UP without much success. Her brother Rahul who is tipped to succeed Manmohan Singh as prime minister has recently been campaigning in UP mixing up with Dalits, visiting their homes and sharing meals with them.

Feisty Mayawathi recently had a crack at the young Gandhi saying that visiting Dalits' homes and having meals with them won't help Dalits and instead Gandhi should find permanent employment for them.

Tamil Nadu

Meanwhile in Tamil Nadu Velupillai Pirapaharan's one time godfather Muthuvel Karunanidhi is treading a pro LTTE line very cautiously lest he violates election laws and embarrasses the Congress. He had called for the LTTE and its leader to be treated with respect by Sri Lanka while Jayalalitha is accusing him of not pushing Congress far enough to implement a ceasefire.

Only Vaiko of the MDMK has said that he might be arrested for sedition for his support for the LTTE but the party should continue with the campaign to ensure his victory for his election as MP would give him much greater strength to support the LTTE.

 The election in Tamil Nadu would indicate how far Tamil Nadu voters have been swayed by its politicians who have expressed contradictory opinions on the LTTE, at onetime even calling for the arrest of Pirapaharan although they are pleading to support him now.

BJP's success with its pro Hindutva policies - although constrained to a great extent lest it antagonises moderates and minorities - will also be revealed in the election. Its Octogenarian leader L.K. Advani has a new challenger in his home constituency Gandhinagar - India's most famous classical dancer, the vivacious Mallika Sarabhai.

Supported by NGOs and youth, Mallika has said she is 'fighting to bring democracy to the People's Democracy which now in India amounted to democracy not of the people but of politicians, for the politicians by the politicians.'