Insight

Ranil Wickremesinghe and the future of the UNP

By D.B.S. Jeyaraj 

Sacrum Romanum Imperium (Holy Roman Empire)  was a misnomer according to some historians. Even at it’s zenith  the so-called Holy Roman Empire was neither holy nor Roman. It was not even an empire.

Likewise the United National Party  in Sri Lanka too is neither united nor national. Given the internal turmoil and external unpopularity some feel  it may cease to be even a party soon.

While the downslide of the UNP has been visible for quite sometime,  two recent developments may be perceived as harbingers of a doomsday that may envelope the grand old party if remedial action is not taken.

Firstly there was the  recently concluded Western Provincial poll. The UNP  was not tipped to win but it has fared even worse than expected.

Seats

The ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) got 64. 7 % of the vote and 68 of 104 seats in the Western Provincial Council. The UNP got 29. 6 % of the vote and 30 seats.

Moreover the voting pattern indicated that the UPFA was riding the crest of a “Sinhala” wave. The predominantly Sinhala electoral divisions voted overwhelmingly for the government. The districts of Colombo (76%), Gampaha  (91%) and Kalutara (87%) are preponderantly Sinhala.

The  successful war against the LTTE yielded dividends for President Mahinda Rajapakse. These more than province-related issues  dominated the election campaign.

Combined

It was only in Colombo city that the UNP scored. Here the combined strength of the minority communities exceeds that of the majority community. The population ratio for the metropolis is Sinhala (41.4%) Tamil (29.8%), Muslims (25.6%) and Indian Tamil (2.2%).

Thus the UNP got 15 of its 30 seats from Colombo District. Of these seven (four Tamil and three Muslim) are from the minority communities.

A noteworthy feature of the WPC poll was the unusually low voter turn-out. Out of 3, 829, 414 registered voters only 2,415,879 votes were polled. Of these  88,993 votes were rejected.

On the  basis  of this low  turn out some UNP pundits are engaging in spin. They say that the bulk of voters who kept away and also spoiled their votes were protesting against the government.

Every dark cloud has a silver lining but the UNP spin doctors are going a bit too far in trying to make the lining cover the cloud.

There are four  major lessons for the UNP from the poll verdict.

The first is that its  Sinhala constituency is diminishing. Contrary to what the UNP spin doctors say  it was a large number of  traditional UNP Sinhala supporters who refrained from voting.

This may  be due to die-hard UNP supporters being  disappointed with their party’s conduct but  reluctant to vote against it through loyalty.

Correct

The second is the eroding  UNP  vote bank among the Tamil and Muslim communities. It is certainly correct that the UNP harvested more of these votes than the UPFA but it was not up to what was expected. Moreover it was more of a protest vote against the government rather than a vote for the UNP.  The minorities are not happy with the UNP’s dithering policies on the ethnic front.

The third is  UNP votes  diminishing in the so-called “Catholic belt.” Of course there have been demographic changes in these constituencies, but the margin of defeat shows that the Catholic vote for the UNP is on the wane.

The fourth is that the bulk of new or youth  votes and the floating vote has also gone away from the UNP.  These segments also reflected the overall trend of voting.

If the multi-ethnic, multi-religious Western Province is a microcosm of the country at large these four factors indicate that the UNP is in  trouble. Of course it may be argued  that “war euphoria” was the cause. Even if so  should the fall have been this hard?

Security

The second important development was the UNP’s announcement  not to stage a May Day rally this year. It cited security or the lack of it as the main cause. While this excuse does have some  validity it cannot be denied that the decision is also symptomatic of the UNP’s weakness.

As far as May Day is concerned there is poetic justice. It was the UNP more than any political party in Sri Lanka that undermined, distorted and transformed the significance of May Day.

The UNP turned this day of the working class into a big bajou or tamasha. Artistes from India were imported and everything was like a carnival. Seas of red at May Day gave way to oceans of green and blue. With that went workers rights.

Flourished

It was also the UNP that introduced  patronage politics into the trade union sphere. The Jathika Seva Sangamaya (JSS) network under Cyril Mathew and Gamini Dissanayake  flourished as  an appendage  of the ruling regime.

This virtually emasculated the trade union movement. The coup de grace was delivered in 1980 when the TU’s made their last stand through the July strike. The ruthless and cruel manner in which the strike was  suppressed rang  the death- knell  for the “Kamkaru panthiya.”

So it is indeed ironic to see the UNP in a position where it cannot even hold a token May Day rally or procession. But then this is not a matter to gloat about as the decline and fall of the UNP is not a good thing for the country.

It is a basic tenet of democracy that its success depends very greatly on the multi-party system. Except for a few countries  a viable  two-party equation has evolved amidst multiple entities.

The general trend has been for two major parties or groupings to be elected alternately at elections. In Sri Lanka too the two-party system has evolved and grown.

By that criterion the presence of a strong opposition party is essential for the future of democracy and good governance in Sri Lanka. Despite flaws, democracy remains the single best bet for governance and for this a vibrant opposition is a pre-requisite.

Decline

In such a situation  the decline of the UNP is not a welcome prospect. Whether one likes it or not the UNP remains the single largest political party in the opposition. Its leader is the current leader of the opposition.

A deteriorating UNP can cause a political vacuum. It can pave the way for a de-facto authoritarian one-party regime. President Rajapakse is  an unabashed proponent of populism. If there is no effective deterrent the chances of a “Bonapartist” regime is very high.

Already this government is ushering in all the vestiges of a national security state. The war against the LTTE is used as a pretext  and to obtain sanction for practicing repression and  crushing of dissent.

Moreover there is naked nepotism and unapologetic family bandyism. Corruption and bad governance are the order of the day. Instances of power being abused and misused proliferate. The media is directly and indirectly emasculated. The trappings of a Gestapo state are everywhere. Above all the rule of law is eroding.

Against this bleak backdrop, the presence of a strong opposition party becomes imperative. Only a strong opposition party can stand as a bulwark against this creeping dictatorship. In such a situation  one  cannot be happy about the UNP’s decline. With all its faults the UNP  remains the only option at this juncture for the future of democracy in this country.

There is something in politics called the ‘TINA’ factor. TINA is  an acronym for ‘There Is No Alternative.’ Under the present circumstances the UNP is necessary due to the TINA factor.

There is simply no viable alternative. It is in the best interests of the country  that the UNP resists the falling of light and rises from the depths  it has sunk in to.

Single cause

This brings us to Ranil Wickremesinghe,  the “Eksath Jathika Pakshaye Nayakathuma.” He is portrayed as the single cause for the continuous electoral debacles suffered by the party.

It is said that Ranil is a liability to the UNP and that the party  can revive and renew itself only after he quits or is jettisoned. Sadly a substantial number subscribing to this view are within the UNP itself.

Now I do recognise and acknowledge that the leadership style of Ranil Wickremesinghe leaves much to be desired. There is a lot of room for improvement here.

But I do not accept the argument that  Ranil is the sole reason for the UNP’s decline. I think it is due to a combination of several factors chief among which is the UNP’s stance on the ethnic crisis. Also I do not think he is the “Jonah” afflicting the party. The  blame for the green pachyderm  turning into a white  elephant should be shared by many.

There are however some points that I would like to emphasise briefly here.

There are  sayings in English that nobody flogs a dead horse or kicks a dead dog! If Ranil Wickremesinghe is indeed a failure without future then why is he the biggest target of numerous critics and opponents of the UNP?

Would it not be best for the government to let the UNP burdened by Ranil,  languish in opposition backwaters instead of trying to make that party enter the portals of power by encouraging a Ranil exit?

Venomous

But what do we see? A consistent pattern of venomous, low-down attacks aimed at Ranil personally. Avowed enemies of the UNP advise the party to get rid of Ranil if it ever wants to enjoy power! Are we to believe that these worthies are proffering altruistic advice so that the UNP can taste power?

Rather these seem  puerile attempts to compel Ranil to throw in the towel voluntarily or foment rebellion within UNP ranks. Unfortunately some greens have fallen victim to this.

The crux of the matter is that if Ranil is indeed the perennial loser then the ranks of government would cheer rather than jeer.

More substance

The fact that this man is the constant butt of vituperative attacks  in spite of being  ridiculed as a failure shows that there is more substance  and potential in Wickremesinghe than what people give him credit for.

Let us remember that no one flogs a dead horse or kicks a dead dog. If Wickremesinghe is constantly attacked and his party is urged to kick him out then that means his opponents are wary of him and feeling insecure.

Why is this? The only reason I can infer is that Ranil’s opponents fear that he has the potential to pose a serious political threat and if elected to office as president will perform well enough to  get a second term.

Wickremesinghe is basically a technocrat and if elected to office will run a smooth and efficient administration. He has a firm grasp of economics and will be the best man to lead the country on the road to economic emancipation. Tragically for the UNP Wickremesinghe’s worth is not realised. Instead of seeing his positive side bickering partymen opt to see the negative side alone. The glass is half-empty and not half-full for them.

Wickremesinghe is not a  personality with an insincere ear to ear grin. He is not at ease in an unknown crowd. Ranil is more at home with a clique than the masses. He is generally reserved and aloof.

Also he is not assertive and is seen as being indecisive. Ranil is like a cross between a Shakespearean Hamlet pondering “to be or not to be” and a Dickensian Micawber “waiting for something to turn up.”

I do not think this public image is truly representative of the man but then perceptions are what matter in electoral politics.

Support him

What Wickremesinghe’s lieutenants  should do is to support him whole-heartedly and cover up for deficiencies in leadership style. This is what the UNP’ers of yore did for JR Jayewardene who also had a ‘cold’ public image. This is what Federal Party stalwarts did for the sick and feeble S.J.V. Chelvanayagam.

Instead of that what do we find? A bunch of disloyal, ambitious, petty golayas whose primary goal seems to be that of conspiring against the leadership and secondary goal that  of one-up-manship over fellow partymen.

Earlier political deputies would compete with each other to succeed the leader but would be loyal to him or her  and work honestly for the party. Party leaders were not averse to fomenting intra-party rivalry to both prevent challenges to leadership and also stimulate them into working diligently for the party.

But what we have in the UNP is a situation where  leadership wannabes are impatient and want to topple the leader right away. In order to undermine the leadership they do not throw in their full weight behind the party and instead indulge in sabotage.

If one is to use a cricket metaphor the team spends more time trying to topple the skipper than play against the rival team. Batsmen do not score runs, bowlers  do not take wickets and fielders miss catches. The idea is to lose the match so that the skipper can be replaced.

Energy spent

Thus the energies of Ranil Wickremesinghe are spent more in staving off internal conspiracies than taking on the chief opponent. Party stalwarts spend  time either conspiring for or against Ranil than catering to their constituencies.

This does not mean that Wickremesinghe has lost control of the party. Despite sections of the media giving wide publicity to the internal dissension and sensationalising  intra-UNP conspiracies the reality is that Ranil Wickremesinghe enjoys majority support among both the Parliamentary Group and Working Committee.

I must also point out that not all party stalwarts are conspiring or revolting. There are many who have steadfastly stood by  and are standing by Wickremesinghe. But such conduct does not get much mention in the media. Only the anti-Ranil antics get prominence.

The ‘TINA’ factor applies to Ranil too. There may be  some who want to remove Wickremesinghe from a leadership position but the multi-crore question is who will succeed him? There are many possibilities but there is no one broadly acceptable to all sections within the party.

There was a time when Karu Jayasuriya could have been a suitable replacement. But his image got tarnished after crossing over with 18 elephants and returning alone. Wickremesinghe has never deserted the party. Also Karu  has a  negative image among minority communities.

S.B. Dissanayake on the other hand  has a positive image among minorities and enjoys much influence in the highlands. But it is doubtful whether he can aspire to national leadership right now. Rukman Senanayake may have the support of  sections of the rural Sinhala nationalist base but will be unacceptable generally.

Ravi Karunanayake, Sajith Premadasa, Lakshman Seneviratne, Lakshman Kiriella, Tissa Attanayake and some others  may don the mantle of UNP leadership in the future. But as for now they have to play under Wickremesinghe and hope to reach the helm through service to party and country.

Stab

In such a situation ‘There Is No Alternative’ to Ranil at present. The sooner the UNP realises it and backs Ranil fully and loyally the better it is. Headaches are not cured by changing pillows.

The UNP stalwarts rebelling against Ranil must do some soul-searching. Is the UNP predicament due  to Ranil’s leadership alone? How many of these veterans have adequate personal political clout? Are not many of them totally disconnected with their supporters? How many keep in touch with the constituency at grassroots level?

A political party is like an old-fashioned train chugging along an up-country railway line. The leader is the engine that pulls it at the front. Senior deputies are the engine that pushes it from the back. The leader  cannot deliver alone. On the contrary deputies must bolster up the party by complementing the leader’s lapses.

Make no mistake! The UNP’s ills will not be cured by changing the leader alone. The party attitude and approach must change. Otherwise the very same people who draw knives to stab Wickremesinghe will not hesitate to plunge the weapon into Ranil’s successor also.

Let us also not forget that the presidency was lost by Ranil twice due to the LTTE. In 1999 the abortive attack on Chandrika Kumaratunga helped her  win by riding the sympathy wave. In 2005 the LTTE prevented Tamils from voting through an enforced boycott and reduced Wickremesinghe’s potential votes. Still what a narrow margin of defeat it was.

This does not mean that Ranil’s stock remains as high even now. The collapse of the peace process  and the euphoric success of the Rajapakses’ war against the Tigers has brought about a triumphalist mood amidst the majority community.

Furthermore the jackals who made a sordid secret deal with the LTTE to scuttle Wickremesinghe have turned the tables on  him by accusing the elephant of conspiring with the Tiger.

The UNP has made things worse for itself by remaining aloof from the military effort. The armed forces belong to the nation and not to the ruling party. But the UNP has allowed the government to appropriate the military effort by default.

The tendency by UNP leaders to belittle the gains of the army in order to score brownie points against the government has not gone down well either. The persistent refusal to condemn the LTTE harshly has also worked to the UNP’s disadvantage.

Respect him

I do not think Ranil Wickremesinghe did anything wrong by promoting peace with the LTTE. I respect him for his courage in that though I have reservations about the way it was done. But let us not forget that Wickremesinghe talked peace sincerely and genuinely. It was the LTTE that was faithless and ultimately betrayed the peace.

It was because  Ranil Wickremesinghe participated in the peace process genuinely and the LTTE was at fault  that the international community is now standing behind Colombo in its effort to defeat the LTTE. It is also the peace process that created the environment for the Karuna revolt.

Instead of highlighting these points and taking the bull by its horns the UNP has been on the defensive as if searching for a negotiated peace was a cardinal sin or error.

What it should do is to come down hard on the LTTE but speak out for the rights of the Tamil and Muslim people. Instead the party has sent contradictory signals on those matters while some party heavyweights play “footsie” with Sinhala supremacism.

One of the finest attributes of Ranil Wickremesinghe is his  consistent refusal to play the communal card. It has been the bane of Sri Lankan politics that parties in opposition  engage  in communal politics  to obstruct the government. Ranil changed this by not going down that path.

Given the triumphalism  of majoritarian chauvinists and the ephemeral popularity of  President Rajapakse it may seem virtually impossible that this regime could be defeated electorally. But then all things are impermanent and things do change.

It must be remembered that Winston Churchill won the war but was booted out in 1945 by Clement Attlee. Indira Gandhi dismembered Pakistan in a military triumph in 1971 but was unceremoniously ejected in 1977 after the emergency.

George Bush Snr. won the Gulf War but did not get a second term in 1992. George Bush Jnr.  conquered Kabul and Baghdad but went down at his tail end as the most unpopular US president in history.

The Rajapakse regime  has contained or diverted resentment against it by using war as the opium of the masses. But the war is ending and it won’t be able to justify its shortcomings  perpetually through war euphoria. The economy is in shambles. The nepotism, corruption, repression, authoritarianism,  mis-governance and abuse/misuse of power of this regime is immense.

Yearnings begin

Once the euphoria subsides the country will begin yearning for better economic prospects. Man does not live by news of victory on the war front alone but also  by bread and rice and dhal and pol sambol. If this regime cannot deliver then people would welcome change.

It is here that Ranil Wickremesinghe could score provided of course that his party stands by him. The UNP needs to re-invent itself and Wickremesinghe has to re-furbish his image. If that is done reports of the grand old party’s demise would indeed be premature.

More importantly the UNP must return to its roots and original vision. The founding fathers had a dream for a United and National party.

The party must re-capture that vision. It has to strike out against  chauvinism and articulate  pluralist and egalitarian principles boldly.

The party that ushered in freedom from colonial bondage  decades ago must once again take the lead in forging a United Nation and a ‘New’ Lanka where all her children will live equally and peacefully in a just society.

(This article also appears on www.dbsjeyaraj.com) 

Ranil says no

The Sunday Leader asked Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe for an interview following the Western Provincial Council election, but he politely turned us down. We then offered him an alternative to author an article on the current status of the UNP which we would carry under his byline – but Mr. Wickremesinghe said he did not have the time to do so. He added that he does not write to newspapers.