South Asia facing a bleak future

Admittedly, South Asia is in crisis. As a region, we have exceeded our carrying capacity. Naturally, there is substantial resource depletion to contend with.

Let’s get to the bottom of the crisis. The region is ranked among the world’s most crowded places — with a population density higher than the world average. About 1.3 billion inhabit South Asia — about one third of all Asians and a fifth of the entire world population.

Then look at the issue of environmental sustainability of a region that suffers from vast resource depletion. Goal Seven of the UN Millennium Development Goals (UNMDG) seeks to ensure environmental sustainability through integrating principles of sustainable development in policies and programmes of countries to reverse the loss of environmental resources.

For South Asia, the problems are further complicated. It’s not just about resource depletion and growing populations but also about increasing poverty. That’s where the real crisis lies.

Key indicators

To assess the trends that cause stress on our nations, key indicators on air, water, land and biodiversity are monitored though the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). While the absence of updated scientific databases proves a major challenge, the indicators are nevertheless very valid.

In contrast to the above realities, with an economic growth rate averaging 5.2% during 1990-2000, South Asia has the potential to become a leading economic block. But overpopulation and a higher population rate than the entire world’s, cause 40% of the world’s poor to live in the sub region with limited and/or depleting resources.

According to the indicators, land degradation is a major problem impacting on arable land causing food security concerns. Water quality in rivers across South Asia has consistently deteriorated and needs major interventions. Water availability per capita has been decreasing in most countries, which may seriously affect economic and social development while air quality too has significantly deteriorated in major countries in South Asia.

Social indicators

With half a billion poor people, some 450 million in India alone, all South Asian countries excluding Sri Lanka and Maldives remain in the low human development index bracket. Bhutan and Maldives are not stressed by high poverty levels and it is projected that 55% of the region’s poverty could be reduced by 2015, a Herculean task if any.

With India having the highest population of the poor and Sri Lanka the lowest, about 18% poverty reduction was achieved during the 1990-2000 period.

Rating high amongst the social indicators, it was Sri Lanka that came close to the target with its infant mortality rate of 15 per 1000 live births, very close to the developed countries’ statistics of 10 per 1000 live births.

 Likewise, the highest life expectancy was recorded in Sri Lanka and the lowest in Nepal. The highest Human Development Index (HDI) is in the Maldives and Sri Lanka at 0.74 and the lowest is in Bangladesh — 0.47. The highest life expectancy is recorded in Sri Lanka — 73.1 years while the lowest is in Nepal — just 58.9 years. 

UNEP notes that nutritional deficiencies, poor maternity services and general low status of women contribute to low social indicators.

Economy indicators

Sustained economic growth is a must for poverty reduction and social development.  In this region, there is tremendous inequitable distribution of wealth.

The highest GDP growth is recorded in Maldives and India followed closely by Bhutan, while Pakistan had the lowest.

As the global economy is projected to grow at 3.1% from 2002-2015, the South Asian economy is predicted to grow at 6% while the region is predicted to be a pioneer in economic growth. On an average, the sub region showed modest economic growth rates.

The Gross National Income (GNI) has increased in all countries with India having the highest GNI in the sub region — US$ 4.8 billion and Nepal having the lowest — US$ 5.6 million. Maldives did the region proud with the region’s highest GNI per capita at US$ 1960 per capita. This is two to eight times higher than all other countries in the region.

Land indicators

South Asia occupies only 4.8% of the world’s total land area. Out of the five sub regions of Asia and the Pacific, South Asia has the biggest area under crops.

There is immense land degradation, the highest degradation recorded in India with one third of Sri Lanka subjected to severe soil erosion. One fourth of Pakistan’s total land area is threatened by water and wind erosion.

Increasing population, clearing of forests for agriculture and settlement have pressurised forest cover but arable land per capita is too on a decrease in South Asia, with urbanisation, population growth and industrialisation stretching the land resource to capacity. Thus, there is increasing pressure on the existing forests as more forests are cleared to compensate for lost arable land.

Water

There are two sides to this aspect. On the one hand, there is an outbreak of waterborne diseases due to unsafe drinking water and inadequate sanitation.

With rivers being the key source of drinking water in South Asia, urbanisation, industrialisation, agricultural run off and improper agricultural practices and excessive withdrawal of water contribute to water pollution.

Besides there are religious and social practices that also contribute to river pollution.

Access to sanitation remains insufficient in South Asia. The highest access to safe sanitation is reported in Sri Lanka (83%) and the lowest, in Nepal (27%).

Water availability per capita has decreased in most of the countries in South Asia except in Nepal and Sri Lanka where it has increased in the past decade. Bhutan has the highest per capita water capacity. Ill-conceived irrigation systems with spillover effect, water lodging and salinity often cause land degradation, with Pakistan being the country that is most affected by water salinity.

Air

Rapid urbanisation is faulted for the deterioration of the air quality, coupled with expansion in transportation, industrialisation, poor fuel quality and low motor vehicle engine efficiency.

In South Asia, only New Delhi has tackled the air quality issue with the introduction of converting its entire fleet of the public transport buses to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), the cleanest of all fuels.

Besides, there is significant fly ash, increased high industrial emissions, Co2 emissions, serious health problems, atmospheric pollution and among the worst environmental developments – acid rain that sends danger signals to the region.

As for SPM concentrations according to WHO standards, Dhaka holds the worst possible record while Maldives, despite its smaller population, has the highest per capita emissions in the region — 1.3 metric tonnes.

Bio diversity

South Asia is home to a wide variety of terrestrial and marine biodiversity with Sri Lanka being recognised among the most biologically diverse countries in the world.

This region also includes biological hotspots (where disappearance of already threatened tropical forests would cause the greatest losses of biodiversity) such as the Eastern Himalayas, the Western Ghats in India and southeastern Sri Lanka. The region is home to around 14% of the world’s remaining mangrove habitation, in addition to the highest percentage of threatened wetlands.

Increasing population, urbanisation and agricultural demands have made it difficult to mark land as ‘protected park area’ in South Asia. The Sandarbans, found in the Brahmaputra Delta are among the world’s most significant mangrove forests.

The protected areas have increased in all countries except Pakistan during 1985-1999.

The highest percentage of threatened plants is reported in Sri Lanka while the highest percentage of threatened birds is found in Bangladesh and the highest threatened mammal population is reported in India.

And that’s only the tip of the iceberg, adds UNEP. The crisis is still unfolding.