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A MILITARY VICTORY VIS-A-VIS ONE PARTY DEMOCRACY
Since
1971,
Sri Lanka
has been under emergency rule more often than not. From
the first armed insurrection by the JVP in 1971 people
of this country have seen death and destruction of a
massive scale. Today for the first time in the last 30
years there is real hope that the country can look
forward to a more peaceful future.
When
the government declared two and a half years ago, that
it would crush the LTTE in three years few believed it.
Many simply laughed at the idea. Perhaps, it was Defence
Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse and then Army Commander
Lieutenant General Sarath Fonseka were the only two who
believed that it could and would be done.
What
most believed to be impossible has been achieved — for
that Rajapakse and Fonseka justifiably must get the
credit. By extension the governing party will benefit in
the many electoral battles expected this year. Once the
decision was made by the President to declare all out
war against the LTTE he stuck by it. The government
refused to wilt under tremendous pressures exerted by
the international community, the INGOs and human rights
organisations here and abroad to return to peace talks.
It was a big gamble.
The
country’s economy was performing poorly and a worldwide
economic slump was looming. It is expected to hit the
country hard in the next few months. In this environment
if the war continued longer, the country and the
government would have been in dire straits.
The
end of the conflict will inevitably bring economic
benefits. The first sector that will revive is tourism.
The last three years have been very lean for this
industry. Since 1983, for the first time the tourist
industry may now be able to plan — long term.
As
happened during the peace talks, opening of the Jaffna
Kandy road will revitalise the northern economy, later
this year, and many Sri Lankans living abroad will start
investing their money here again.
However, all indicators may not end up being positive.
The strangle-hold this government seems to be having on
the voters could turn out to be a major negative for the
future of the country.
The
UNP leadership especially Ranil Wickremesinghe can be
forgiven for being skeptical about the war coming to an
end in three years when it was first announced. But to
continue to think so when signs were clear a year ago
that the army had the momentum and the LTTE could not
face the 50,000 or so highly motivated soldiers backed
by some serious fire power, was foolhardy.
For an
intelligent, thinking man, Wickremesinghe appears to be
out of touch with reality. Almost the entire nation was
backing the military offensive and Wickremesinghe and
the UNP chose to ridicule the war effort. A poorly
drafted statement extending half hearted congratulations
of sorts cannot rectify the damage caused to the party.
There is a danger here. Unless the UNP sorts out its
internal problems and the leadership crisis, there is a
real threat that we would end up as a “one party”
democracy – at least in the short term. In politics,
change, sometimes dramatic, can take place out of the
blues. The challenge for the UNP is to be in a position
to take advantage of that.
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