There is much speculation about historic changes in Japanese domestic and foreign policies after the ‘historic’ victory of  the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) led by 62 year-old Yukio Hatoyama. But even though the Japanese electorate did endorse his radical proposals, changing the policies of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that ruled the country since World War II would be quite a formidable task

To change the style of governance that had prevailed for so long, analysts say that Hatoyama will have to break through the steel triangle that held the country together and  boosted its economy to the fastest growth rate during their first four decades. Under the LDP rule the triangle comprised the party, the bureaucracy and the big business.

The bureaucracy was the nexus between the politicians and big business and this alignment of forces did help Japan to rise from the ashes of the last war to become the world’s second biggest economy. But corruption, a stagnant economy that gradually took hold, the consequent rising unemployment and the recent financial crisis ended this economic boom and the popularity of the LDP.

Bureaucracy

Hatoyama’s  major challenge will be the bureaucracy which played a significant role in governing Japan, at times becoming even more powerful than ministers. Some analysts claim that the bureaucrats are the successors of the ancient Samurai, now in business  suits who did so well for three decades  but their time has run out. The new government’s task will be to make the economy recover — with signs of recovery  becoming apparent in the last two weeks — as well as fund consumer friendly programmes but is still stymied by the public debt which is heading towards 200 per cent of GDP.

Foreign policy

Hatoyama and his DPJ has attracted global interest because of its left leaning policies and Hatoyama’s letter to the New York Times during his election campaign saying that many Asian nations wanted to see America’s political and economic excesses restrained. US military might was the key to stability of the Asian region but stronger ties were needed to safeguard Japan’s interests.

Since the controversy his article created Hatoyama has been backtracking and had even claimed that the anti American tone of the article was a product of unsympathetic editing.

Whatever amends the new Japanese Prime Minister may attempt at damage control his statements during  his election campaigning have caused much concern in the American foreign policy establishment.

Hatoyama had called for a more autonomous foreign policy based on equal ties with America and promised to end the refuelling agreement  under which Japan continues to supply fuel to warships in the Indian Ocean. He had also called the relocation of American bases which Japan is hosting at its expense after the World War and transfer the 8000 mines in it to Guam, in American territory in the Pacific.

The US has already responded strongly to this proposal of renegotiating the refuelling deal. A spokesman for the State Department has said that the ‘US has no intention of renegotiating the deal’ while a Pentagon Spokesman had  called on Japan: ‘to fulfil its international responsibilities.’

Japanese genius

Japan which was atom bombed into defeat by the Americans, even after half a century, still has  a pacifist constitution written for it under American dictates. It cannot have  conventional armed forces on land, sea or air  and only defence forces. Yet, the Japanese genius has been such that even under these conditions it has exploited US-Japanese relations to such an extent that it became the second largest economy in the world — at one stage it being feared that it would even surpass the American economy.

The Japanese made use of one opportunity available to them, the American market. Today Japan’s economy depends very much on the American market and also that of Europe.

Having very powerful neighbours — China and Russia to the east — and also hostile North Korea, though not as powerful, Japan’s defence has been solely dependent on the Americans. It is still protected by the Nuclear Umbrella of the Americans.

Japan wants to have friendlier relations with its neighbours such as China and South Korea. But memories of the last war recalled by Japanese when they want to remember their war dead sends the people of these neighbouring countries into a frenzy such as visits by Japanese leaders to the Yasukumi Shrine. Hatoyama has promised that he would not be visiting this shrine. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabo has welcomed Hatoyama’s ‘positive attitude’ while reports say that South Korea is also on the upbeat.

 Atomic weapons

On Thursday Japan’s new Prime Minister ordered an investigation into alleged secret agreements between Japan and the United States following a report in the Japan Times that past administrations had given tacit approvals to permitting US vessels and aircraft carrying atomic weapons to pass through or stop over in Japan. Is this a positive sign of hardening of US-Japan relations?

Despite  massive demonstrations by the Japanese left parties throughout the 50 years on American influence and presence of troops and bases in Japan the majority of Japanese support the status quo the analysts say. A Japanese defence analyst was quoted last week predicting; There will be no major change in  US-Japan relations — only shaking of foundations.